A $68 million bitcoin bet is targeting a post-midterm election breakout to $90,000

A $68 million bitcoin bet is targeting a post-midterm election breakout to $90,000

Your day-ahead look for Oct. 26, 2026

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Bitcoin BTC$84,459.46 is trading pretty much where it was on Saturday, around $80,000, offering little news on the price front. Most of the other major cryptocurrencies, including ether ETH$2,490.55, XRP (XRP), solana (SOL) and dogecoin DOGE$0.08295, BNB BNB$748.57, are equally listless.

In contrast, options trading on decentralized platform Derive is offering some excitement. The platform told CoinDesk that one trader took $68 million bet that BTC's spot price would climb above $90,000 just after U.S. mid-term elections in early November. There has also been an increase in bets implying market prices will top $100,000 by Christmas.

First, the $68 million trade. On Oct. 20, a single wallet bought 800 contracts of $90,000 call options expiring on Nov. 6 on Derive. Each contract represents one BTC.

“That's approximately $68 million in face value at current Bitcoin prices – the largest open Bitcoin position on Derive,” the exchange told CoinDesk.

A call gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to purchase the underlying asset at a predetermined rate on or before a specific date. That’s locking in the right to buy at today's price in the future. Even if it costs more when the date arrives, you still get to buy it at the agreed price.

The position was not simply bought outright. The wallet sold 400 contracts of $100,000 calls expiring in March 2027 and another 400 contracts of $90,000 calls expiring Oct. 30, collecting about $940,000 net after financing the purchase.

The second key development is the odds shifting higher. Derive’s market-implied probability of bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by Christmas rose from 9.7% a week ago to 12%. At the same time, the implied chance of bitcoin falling below $70,000 by Christmas dropped from 15.6% to 11%.

Derive is the world's largest DEX by notional volume and open interest, according to data source DefiLlama.

Still, it is much smaller than centralized giant Deribit, which has been in business for a decade and registers volume and open interest worth several billions of dollars every day. Over there, 25-delta skews for both bitcoin and ether are negative at the front end. In other words, puts are pricier than calls, indicating a bias for downside protection. Stay alert!

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Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

What’s trending

Neocloud stocks fall as Elon Musk says more than 200 of them face ‘guppy-level death’ (CNBC): Shares of major neocloud stocks fell on Monday after Elon Musk said more than 200 companies in the sector could collapse. Stocks, bonds cautious ahead of 'formidable' week for risk (Reuters): Global shares rose as oil ​eased from six-month highs ahead of a week of central bank meetings and corporate earnings that will further test confidence ‌in the AI boom. Over 11 million bitcoin has no known owner. Here's what it means. (CoinDesk): About 11.1 million BTC, roughly 55% of the supply, was classified as unattributed in Galaxy’s October snapshot. Those coins could belong to individuals, to institutions the firm hasn’t identified, or holders who can no longer access them. Bitcoin wallet bug let rogue servers steal funds when users tried to speed up payments (CoinDesk): A bitcoin wallet security flaw allowed malicious servers to trick users into signing payments to attackers when they tried to speed up transactions, with developers confirming at least one case in which money was stolen.

Today’s signal

The chart shows ether’s daily price swings in candlestick format since June. Overlaid is the Ichimoku cloud, an indicator used to identify support, resistance and trend changes.

Ether is on the verge of crossing below the cloud and losing support of the bullish trendline from late June lows.

A dual breakdown, if confirmed, would signal major demand-side weakness and mark the end of ether’s bullish structure, paving the way for deeper losses.

1Bitcoin holds near $80,000 as oil retreats and the Fed decision looms1 hour ago 2Live news: Bitcoin barely holding $80,000 ahead of Fed on Wednesday, tech earnings this week1 hour ago 3Calpers pulls back from big tech as AI jitters deepen neocloud sell-off1 hour ago 4Fed, ECB and BOJ interest-rate decisions, Coinbase earnings: Crypto Week Ahead3 hours ago 5Over 11 million bitcoin has no known owner. Here's what it means5 hours ago 6India's largest crypto exchange absorbs $16 million loss from internal process failure tied to retired wallet6 hours ago 7Bitcoin wallet bug let rogue servers steal funds when users tried to speed up payments7 hours ago 8Bitcoin slips under $80,000 as traders de-risk ahead of Fed meeting7 hours ago 9Elon Musk issues a warning for 'AI neoclouds' as SpaceX borrows $40 billion for chips9 hours ago 10Latvia targets tokenization rules in 2027 with commercial property in focus21 hours ago

Beyond the Risk-Free Rate: Diversified Real World Yield in Productive Stablecoins

Beyond the Risk-Free Rate: Diversified Real World Yield in Productive Stablecoins

Diversified RWA stablecoins sustain 5-7% yield from real credit as crypto funding compresses to ~4%. GENIUS pushes yield off-chain; TAM grows to $4B in 3 years.

Diversified RWA stablecoins sustain 5-7% yield from real credit as crypto funding compresses to ~4%. GENIUS pushes yield off-chain; TAM grows to $4B in 3 years.

Why it matters:

Diversified RWA stablecoins sustain 5-7% yield from real credit as crypto funding compresses to ~4%. GENIUS pushes yield off-chain; TAM grows to $4B in 3 years.

Bitcoin's price is as jumpy as Nvidia's and eight times more turbulent than the euro

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Bitcoin holds near $80,000 as oil retreats and the Fed decision looms

Live news: Bitcoin barely holding $80,000 ahead of Fed on Wednesday, tech earnings this week

Calpers pulls back from big tech as AI jitters deepen neocloud sell-off